Why MLB teams might start changing how t

Why MLB teams might start changing how t

"Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game" was published in 2003. Michael Lewis' book was then turned into a movie that was released in 2011. And yet, in 2021, there are still so many people out there with the misconception that playing "Moneyball" was about a specific stat ("Moneyball is on-base percentage!" the ignorant will cry out) or even some sort of "sabermetrics" revolution to make people hate the stats they long held near and dear in favor of "newfangled" stuff.I'll pause for laughter.No, it's actually about finding market inefficiencies. That is, what skillsets are other teams undervaluing and . There have been several iterations since the initial movement from average to OBP and slugging. Defense is certainly up there, a combination of shifting/positioning and getting undervalued defensive players. Things have obviously been done on the pitching side, such as shortening the game with super bullpens and using openers, among other things.In light of where things are headed right now in baseball, I'm wondering if we're coming full circle very soon with what type of hitter is undervalued.That is to say, while the initial "Moneyball" movement set baseball on a path, where average was le s important than the other two main rate stats (meaning more emphasis was Cam Newton T Shirts put on drawing walks -- and, in related matters, working deep counts -- and hitting for power). In the proce s, we have seen a great shift toward the so-called Three True Outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts). As a result, who got left a bit behind? The high-average, high-contact hitters, po sibly with low power.I said I'm wondering if we're about to come full circle because not only do I believe there's a Pat Elflein Jersey chance at a market inefficiency in there, I also think the forces of the game are swinging toward this type of hitter being undervalued.Strikeouts continue to rise. More and more, it seems like whichever team each game hits "the big home run" is the one that goes on to win. Here are the lowest batting averages in since World War I: 1968: .2371967: .2421972: .2442020: .245If we're wondering about the small sample or want to blame the pandemic, the 2019 average was .252 and the league hit .248 in 2018.If some of those years above jumped out, it's for good reason. After 1967-68, the pitcher's mound was lowered. After 1972, the American League added the DH.Meanwhile, in 2020, strikeouts per team game actually dropped -- to the second-most all-time -- from 2019, but 2020 marked the first year it wasn't a new strikeouts per game record since 2007. It's gotten to the point that it isn't just a small subset fans or curmudgeon broadcasters whining. Many baseball fans acknowledge the game needs more on-field action. At this point, pretty open-minded and even-keel people are discu sing that something has to change. Home runs are great. Walks were far too long an underappreciated part of the game. Big strikeouts are excellent to watch. It's just that we should have more than those things along with groundballs and fly balls going right at nearly perfectly positioned defenders.On one hand, the pitchers and defense are very good. On another, maybe the shift in philosophy left too many different types of hitters behind. Maybe things should tilt back a bit the other way?After stepping down from his perch as president, Theo Epstein took a job with the commi sioner's office and said something along these lines (emphasis mine). "As Donte Jackson Jersey the game evolves, we all have an interest in ensuring the changes we see on the field make the game as entertaining and action-packed as po sible for the fans, while preserving all that makes baseball so special. I look forward to working with interested parties throughout the industry to help us collectively navigate toward the very best version of our game."He had recently sort of lamented his own role in shaping the game, too. :"There are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving," Epstein said. "I take some responsibility for that. Executives like me who have spent a lot of time using analytics and other measures to try to optimize individual and team performance have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game and the entertainment value of the game in some respects."The hunch here is Epstein will have commi sioner Rob Manfred's ear pretty strongly in the next few years. We've also already seen Manfred discu sing things like either banning or limiting the shift along with something to curtail strikeouts, such as lowering and/or moving back the mound.Zeroing in on the po sibility of shifts going away, and low-strikeout guys become even more valuable. It doesn't take an Epstein-savvy front office member to figure out the chances of finding a hole without the defense perfectly Thomas Davis Sr. Jersey crafted to a spray chart increase. Further, after seeing so many strikeouts in huge spots with runners on base over the past several years, I can't help but think that even if a hitter that sits something like .230/.340/.500 can be valuable, evening that out with a high-average contact hitter to keep the line moving at times would be beneficial in creating a more well-rounded lineup.The poster boy here is D.J. LeMahieu. Believe it or not, Epstein actually inherited him with the Cubs, but traded him away his first offseason with Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart and . Stewart looked like the high-walk, high-power guy teams coveted at the time (important update: He wasn't). Despite winning a batting title, winning three Gold Gloves and making two All-Star teams, LeMahieu only got a two-year, $24 million deal with the after the 2018 season as mostly an afterthought in a huge offseason. He went on to finish fourth in AL MVP voting. Then he finished third last season, leading the majors with a .364 average while also pacing the AL in OBP, OPS and OPS+.Finally heavily sought after, LeMahieu got Christian McCaffrey Jersey six years and $90 million to stay with the Yankees this offseason. Yes, he's developed his power, but he only struck out 90 times in 655 plate appearances in 2019 and 21 times in 195 plate appearances in 2020. With everything conspiring in this direction anyway, I think LeMahieu is starting a wave.Here are some others (in a non-exhaustive list) who could become increasingly valuable moving forward into the next decade of baseball evolution. - A broken leg cost La Stella half the 2019 season in what looked like his career year. He already had 16 homers, yet had still only struck out 28 times in 321 plate appearances. Last year, he had the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball while hitting .281 with a .370 OBP. - Pay too much attention to the lo s of power in just 45 games last year at your peril. He still hit .287 and was tough to strikeout. I'm not expecting a full bounce-back to MVP-caliber levels of 2019, but his bat-on-ball skills have pretty steadily improved for five years straight.

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